“In the Long Run, We Are All Dead” — Would Keynes Have Seen Nigeria Coming?

By Abidemi Adebamiwa | Editorial Desk, Newspot Nigeria

When John Maynard Keynes wrote, “In the long run, we are all dead,” he wasn’t rejecting economic reform or discipline. He was reminding those in charge that people live—and struggle—in the short term. Policy that fails to respond to immediate hardship isn’t visionary; it’s detached.

That idea is no less relevant in Nigeria today.

On March 10, 2025, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu addressed young Nigerians at the inauguration of the National Youth Conference Planning Committee. He made no apologies for his administration’s decisions:

“Every decision that I have taken is about you. It’s about the future. When we removed the fuel subsidy, it was because we wanted to protect your future. We have cleared the path for you to have a great future.”

He went further:

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“When we started, it looked so foggy, dicey and hopeless. But today, the economy has turned the corner; prices are falling, confidence in our economy is improving, investors are looking this way, and technology is advancing.”

This is the core of the president’s economic vision: ride out the discomfort now to build a stable, prosperous economy later. It’s a view with echoes of Milton Friedman, the free-market economist who argued that markets, if left alone, will correct themselves over time. Friedman believed government should do less, not more. Deregulate, cut spending, float the currency, and the invisible hand will eventually reward those who endure.

But Friedman had the luxury of writing for economies with functioning safety nets. In Nigeria, over 133 million people live in multidimensional poverty. The “long run” isn’t a neutral waiting period here. It’s a filter. Only the financially secure get to reach it.

Meanwhile, those who spend their lives under pressure from rising food costs, erratic electricity, transport hikes, and stagnant wages are being asked to wait for invisible benefits to materialize. They are not seeing what the president claims: prices “falling,” or investor confidence translating into improved daily life.

If Tinubu’s reforms reflect Friedman’s philosophy, the moment Nigeria is in now still cries out for Keynesian urgency. Keynes didn’t reject markets—he warned that markets alone aren’t fast or fair enough in a crisis. He believed the state has a responsibility to act decisively when livelihoods are at risk.

Tinubu’s team isn’t wrong to seek long-term economic order. But reform without relief is a gamble—especially in a country this unequal. People do not eat projections. They do not survive on investor sentiment. They survive on whether they can afford food, fuel, school fees, and medication this week.

Nigerians are not asking for perfection. They are asking for responsiveness. Some visible shift in the daily cost of living. Some effort to cushion the blow. Some proof that reforms are not just fiscal—they are human.

The President has chosen his path. It is not without logic. But it also demands a level of endurance most citizens cannot afford.

Friedman gave us the theory of delayed outcomes. Keynes gave us the reality check. For Nigeria in 2025, one is not enough without the other.