Newspot Nigeria Business Desk
Global investment bank Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for crude oil prices in the second quarter of 2026, citing escalating risks to oil supply linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy transit routes.
In a new outlook released this week, Goldman Sachs increased its Brent crude price forecast by $10 to $76 per barrel for the second quarter of 2026. The bank also lifted its forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) by $9 to $71 per barrel.
The revision comes as the ongoing military escalation between the United States and Iran continues to disrupt energy markets and raise concerns about the stability of oil flows through the Middle East.
The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, making it one of the most strategically important maritime routes for global energy supply.
According to Goldman Sachs analysts, reduced oil flows through the strait could trigger a significant decline in oil inventories among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and lead to temporary disruptions in Middle Eastern production.
The bank warned that risks remain heavily tilted toward higher prices, particularly if tensions continue to affect shipments through the chokepoint.
Analysts said that if oil volumes passing through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained for five additional weeks, Brent crude prices could surge toward $100 per barrel.
Such a price spike, Goldman noted, would likely trigger “demand destruction,” a market adjustment in which high prices reduce consumption in order to stabilize rapidly falling inventories.
Oil markets have already begun reacting to the geopolitical uncertainty.
Brent crude futures recently traded near $82.57 per barrel, reaching their highest level since January 2025. Meanwhile, WTI crude rose to about $75.28 per barrel, marking its strongest level since June.
Both benchmarks have climbed by around five percent in the past two trading sessions, reflecting growing investor anxiety over the possibility of a prolonged disruption in Middle Eastern oil exports.
Despite the bullish outlook in the near term, Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to moderate later if supply flows normalize.
The bank revised its fourth-quarter 2026 forecast for Brent to $66 per barrel and WTI to $62, while projecting 2027 averages of $70 for Brent and $66 for WTI.
Energy markets are now closely watching developments around the Strait of Hormuz, as any sustained disruption could have far-reaching consequences for global inflation, shipping costs, and energy security.
For oil-dependent economies, the stakes are particularly high. Rising crude prices typically translate into increased fuel costs, higher transportation expenses, and broader inflationary pressure across national economies.
— Newspot Nigeria
