By Kunle Oyatomi
Imagine a Toyota Hummer bus newly purchased in Berger Suya, the Olodi-Apapa area of Lagos State. The tyres: brand new. Exterior: sparkling blue. Interior: extremely breathtaking.
However, somewhere between Mile 2 and Ijesha road, the vehicle, on its way to its new owner, unexpectedly broke down.
Visibly stunned, the driver, an unhappy man in his 60s, quickly sought the help of a roadside mechanic, who wasted no time diagnosing the issue.
After a brief inspection, the mechanic, like a prophet delivering bad news, shook his head and, in pidgin, told the driver: “This motor na accidented one wey dem refurbish. E just fine for face, the engine no too good. Oga, if you never pay, I go advise make you return am because me see say e go give you plenty problems.”
Like the mechanic warned, this, analogically, is the future awaiting the so-called coalition loudly building to unseat President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 elections.
Given the antecedents of those combining to make up the empty coalition, I make bold to state that, like the Toyota Hummer bus, it is flashy on the outside, but internally flawed and would definitely break down before the journey begins.
Here are my reasons.
There are six major actors in the coalition or collision movement that is beginning to gain hazy momentum. First is a serial contestant, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who has unsuccessfully vied for presidency an unprecedented six times – 1993, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023.
Poor records, potential failure
Records show that Atiku, in 1993, began his long walk to the Aso Rock, having run in the Social Democratic Party, SDP, presidential primaries, but lost to Moshood Abiola and Baba Gana Kingibe.
In 2007, he was a presidential candidate of the Action Congress but came third to Umaru Yar’Adua of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and Muhammadu Buhari of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP.
In 2011, he contested the presidential primaries of the PDP and lost out to incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan. In 2014, he joined the All Progressives Congress, APC, ahead of the 2015 presidential election and contested the presidential primaries losing to Muhammadu Buhari. In 2017, he returned to PDP and was the party’s presidential candidate during the 2019 presidential election, again losing to former President Muhammadu Buhari. Again, in 2023, he was defeated by President Bola Tinubu.
At the moment, his history at the polls, which is evidential failure, shows that Nigerians do not want him and that would not change in 2027.
Last chance
Atiku’s latest attempt at contesting is inspired by fear: fear that he might exit the face of the earth without achieving his lifelong ambition. To accomplish this, the 78 year-old serial loser is co-opting every Anti-Tinubu voice to succeed. As such, he is ready to promise everything and sacrifice anything as long as the ticket will be given to him. His strategy: let me promise everything until I grab power.
Even if you ask him to rule for one year and resign for a southerner, he would agree. Besides, he also knows that at 84 by 2031, he will be a political grandfather without the vigour to enter the race with at least five governors warming up for the North’s turn.
Those governors, he knows, are ready to achieve their ambitions through the Northern and Southern rotation unwritten accord.
Beautiful bride
Second is the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, LP, in the 2023 polls. A former governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi, is a beautiful bride for all frustrated Nigerians, who do not understand that he lacks the intelligence quotient needed to sit in that large seat. Easily affected by feelings, Obi, without facts, speaks to national problems and unknowingly displays a cognitive incapacity to lead West Africa’s most populated country. Obi, whose supporters live in a fantasy, needs Northern support to become the president, but he knows that the North cannot trust him with the presidency at the moment. In fact, he is confused whether to accept the vice president to Atiku or not. Obi is apparently wondering what he will tell the Obidient movement about the difference that exists between Atiku and Tinubu. Obi, who knows that the VP offer is a Greek gift, also understands that in the Nigerian context, a Chief of Staff is even more powerful than the VP.
Conspirators
The third group are the conspirators led by Nasir El-Rufai, the unhappy chauffeur, driving the Toyota Hummer, and the thoughtless talker.
Rotimi Amaechi. Both political jokers, now in their 60s, do not have any control of any political party at the moment, hence their undramatic push for a coalition and unintuitive plans of lregistering a new political party they can control. Their target: convincing Peter Obi and Atiku to commit to the party, thereby conspiring for Amaechi to pick the coalition ticket with El-Rufai as VP ahead of 2031. Both aged toddlers are confused whether to use religion or hunger as a weapon if voted into power. The recent “I am hungry” speech on Amaechi’s birthday is to test run hunger weapons but it backfired.
North’ll never forget
Fourth is the “North Will Remember” movement—those who never saw anything wrong with Buhari’s appointments. They defended every northern appointment as merit over tribe. But now that Tinubu has begun filling key roles with his kinsmen, they have retreated into the “North will remember” chant. This group is quietly praying for a coup or revolution to unseat Tinubu. Their only hope? Atiku. They reject Obi as president, but will accept him as VP. To them, it’s either a Northerner or nothing.
Any Igbo man opposed to Tinubu is instantly dubbed a nationalist ally.
Appointment
Fifth are those that couldn’t secure appointment. In the coalition or collision team, we have those who hope for appointment under Tinubu, but have been to do so to date. They wonder how and why Daniel Bwala can get an appointment despite speaking for Atiku in 2023. They are mad that Reno Omokri, like his personal bedroom, is now frequenting the Villa.
Innocent, ignorant citizens hoping for economic magic
Finally, the sixth group: innocent, suffering Nigerians. They need better wages, stable jobs, affordable food, good roads and electricity. They are desperate for hope and tired of hardship. Sadly, their pain and expectations are what the first five coalition gangs are shamelessly exploiting.
Comedians
Like the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Mr Festus Keyamo, said in a recent interview, there is no coalition; all that is going on is comedy.
“There is no coalition yet. What you just see is people discussing. If you understand what coalition means, the father of coalition is Mr President himself. He was the major pillar upon which the APC was formed in 2015. He understands what coalition means. What you are seeing is not a coalition, it is people discussing.
“A coalition will mean, at the end of the day, when people will be able to get into the same boats with clearly defined interests. There is no coalition now.
What you are seeing going on is just comedy. Nothing more than that. It is all noise, no movement. If you understand what politics means, then you will know that the real movement is when you reach political agreements. Not only political agreements. Either you have the heavyweights all coming into one particular umbrella. There is no such thing now. So, you have all the noise and no actual movement going on now. At this point, I see all that is going on as comedy.”
And on this, I agree.
Oyatomi Esq., is a member of the Board of independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) a think tank based in Abuja.
