The 25 February Presidential election in Nigeria is still reverberating round the globe. As it is a 4 year ritual since 1999, the whole world was focused on Nigeria. The prophets of doom and the unrepentant optimists were all glued to the event of the day.
Apart from the 1979 Presidential elections that was a 3 horse race comprising Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the UPN from the West, Dr Nnamdi Azikwe of NPP from the East and Alhaji Shehu Shagari from the North. The Nigerian Presidential elections has always turned out to be a two horse race.
In 1993, it was Chief MKO Abiola of SDP and Alhaji Bashir Tofa of NRC. 1999 featured Chief Olusegun Obasanjo of PDP and Chief Olu Falae of AD/ APP coalition. In 2003, it was Obasanjo vs Buhari. 2007 belonged to YarAdua and Buhari, both from Katsina State. Jonathan and Buhari battled for the top seat in 2011. It was a repeat performance for both combatants in 2015. In 2019 it was a Buhari vs Atiku duel.
In 2023,a new kid on the block by name Peter Obi of the Labour Party threw his hat into the ring. With his OBIdient Movement whose campaign slogan is No Shi Shi. He shook the foundation of Nigeria’s election campaign rallies. Within the span of 7 months of his joining the Labour Party he was able to garner 6.1 million votes according to the figures released by INEC in the early hours of the 1st day of March 2023. He came 3rd with 25% of the total votes cast, having won in 11 states plus the Federal Capital Territory ( FTC). Veteran Atiku Abubakar of PDP came 2nd with 6.9 votes and 29% of the votes. According to INEC, Senator Bola Tinubu of APC was declared winner with 8.7 votes. This represents 37% of the total votes cast.
Nigeria with a projected population of 210m has 93m names on the voters register. About 25m people turned out to vote which is about the lowest since 1979. This implies Tinubu was voted in by less than 10% of the registered voters.
Where are the 41m people that registered for APC less than 2 years ago? This figures show only a little above 20% of it’s members voted for the party. Are the party’s registration figures genuine or a scam?
This brings me to the voting figures of Lagos State that has 7 million as the number of its registered voters. The highest in the country. Obi won the State with 582,454 to Tinubu’s 572,606 votes. A difference of about 10,000 votes. The state is meant to be an impregnable fortress for the former 2 term Governor of the State. What happened? How come Tinubu could garner less than 600,000 votes in a state he has held by the jugular since 1999? What happened to the attendees of the mother of all Mega rallies held in Lagos? Buhari defeated Atiku with over 130,000 votes in 2019. He polled 580,000 in that election.
Lagos State has 20 Local Government Areas and 37 Local Government Development areas ( LCDA). This makes it a total of 57 Local Government Areas with their numerous staff strength. With a Civil Service staff strength of over 150,000, it is surprising that Tinubu cannot poll up to a million votes in a State where he is considered the Numero Uno. This has little to do with lgbo dominance. They should look inward. The impregnable fortress is leaking.
It is the PDP’s democratic right to seek legal redress if it feels dissatisfied with the results announced by INEC. Should it have got to such a stage? The election was there for the taking. Granted that the loud clamor for the Presidency to come to the South must have cost the party a few votes. The party’s loss was sealed the moment the Presidential candidate failed to reconcile with the G5 Governors. What value has the National Chairman added to the party? What has he brought to the table? A Chairman that cannot deliver his Local Government and State. A Vice Presidential candidate that cannot win his State for the party. In politics, you don’t fight, you negotiate. The end justifies the means. It is part of political strategy.
History has repeated itself as it was the decampment of the 5 PDP Governors led by Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State to the newly coupled APC that orchestrated the defeat of Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. From the results reeled out by INEC, the PDP candidate lost in all the G5 States. Do we call it political arrogance or naivety?
On 1 September 2017, Kenya’s Supreme Court nullified the Presidential elections that involved a sitting President. It ordered a rerun within 60 days. The court ruled that the election was tainted by irregularities. This was a first in Africa. Will the 2023 Presidential election in Nigeria be the 2nd? As the various candidates are compiling and gathering evidences. This might be the toughest test for the independence of the Judiciary since the 12 2/3 saga in 1979.
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