By BUKAR Mohammed
Nigeria stands on the brink of a political storm that, if mishandled, could unravel into a full-blown national crisis. The escalating conflict between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor, now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, has reached a precarious tipping point. With the Chief Judge of Rivers State on leave—effectively halting any potential impeachment process against the governor—the situation is primed for an extended constitutional standoff that could have dire consequences for our nation.
Rivers State: The Backbone of Stability
For years, Rivers State has served as a cornerstone of Nigeria’s economic stability. Its relative peace has facilitated consistent oil production, a lifeblood for our economy. Unlike in the past, when militants and discontented youths disrupted oil operations, the current administration has successfully maintained calm. This stability has kept unrest at bay, ensuring that Nigeria benefits from steady crude oil output—essential for government revenue and foreign exchange earnings.
However, this fragile peace is now under grave threat. If the Wike-Fubara political crisis spirals out of control, it could lead to renewed unrest, disrupt oil production, and send shockwaves through an already struggling economy. The stakes could not be higher, and we must act before it is too late.
Fubara’s Legal Masterstroke: Checkmate!
In this unfolding drama, we must commend Fubara’s legal strategists for their remarkable insight—a masterstroke that has effectively placed Wike’s faction in checkmate. The Chief Judge’s decision to take leave, citing a desire to avoid tainting his career with the ongoing crisis, has legally blocked any impeachment process against Governor Fubara. Constitutionally, only the Chief Judge can formalize an impeachment, and with no acting Chief Judge in place—since only the governor has the authority to appoint one—Wike’s loyalists in the Rivers State House of Assembly find themselves at a complete standstill.
This move is nothing short of a strategic game-changer, a decisive legal maneuver that leaves the Wike faction with no viable path forward. Unless they find a constitutional loophole (an unlikely scenario), they are trapped in a political stalemate that strongly favors Fubara. The balance of power has shifted, and for the first time, Wike’s grip on Rivers politics appears to be slipping.
The President’s Delicate Balancing Act
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu now faces a defining test of leadership. While solidifying his party’s grip on Rivers State—a critical economic and political stronghold—he must navigate this situation with exceptional care. A misstep in managing this crisis could unleash widespread civil unrest. Nigerians are already grappling with economic hardship, insecurity, and a pervasive sense of disenfranchisement. Any further provocation, especially one perceived as undermining democracy, could ignite mass protests and fuel broader political instability.
Moreover, if the Rivers crisis escalates to violent confrontations, there is a genuine risk that militants who once held the oil-rich creeks hostage could re-emerge, disrupting oil production and plunging the country into economic turmoil. We cannot afford to compound our already heavy burden of debt servicing. This dilemma is one we must confront with urgency.
A Nation on Edge
The growing anger across the nation is palpable and cannot be ignored. Nigerians are increasingly frustrated with governance failures, economic struggles, and political maneuvering that prioritizes elite interests over national stability. If the Rivers crisis escalates into street protests or violent confrontations, it could embolden similar uprisings in other regions, creating a security nightmare for the federal government. The consequences of such a scenario are grave and must not be underestimated.
A Call for Infinite Wisdom
President Tinubu must demonstrate true statesmanship in resolving the Rivers impasse. Any action perceived as federal overreach favoring one faction could backfire catastrophically. Instead, he should adopt a conflict-resolution approach that ensures justice, upholds democratic principles, and prevents Rivers State from descending into chaos. Mediation, dialogue, and adherence to constitutional processes must take precedence over mere political expediency.
We must all recognize that this is a crisis we cannot afford, as it carries far-reaching consequences and a significant toll on our nation. Nigeria stands at a pivotal moment, and the Rivers State political crisis must not be allowed to spiral into a national disaster. If peace in the region is disrupted, it could trigger a domino effect on oil production, economic stability, and national security. The presidency, state actors, and political stakeholders must act with the utmost caution, acknowledging that the stability of one state can profoundly impact the entire country. In the pursuit of political control, Nigeria must not be plunged into an unnecessary crisis. The time for wisdom is now.
BUKAR Mohammed is a public analyst from Kano.
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