Imam Malik Mahmoud
Politics in Nigeria is a ruthless arena, not for the weak or the honest, and certainly not for those who believe in meritocracy. It is a game of survival, deception, and psychological control. The true winners are those who can adeptly manipulate the emotions of the masses, forge powerful alliances, and wield every tool at their disposal to seize power.
In this landscape, it’s not about who possesses the best policies; it’s about whose name resonates in every corner, whose face is recognized in every village, and whose narrative evokes tears, cheers, or fear among the populace.
This is why figures like Muhammadu Buhari, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Peter Obi, Nasir El-Rufai, and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso dominate political discourse. Each has mastered the art of power in unique ways—some through patience, others through strategy, and some through sheer deception.
Consider President Muhammadu Buhari, who expertly played on the emotions of the masses. His political journey from 2003 to 2015 serves as a masterclass in emotional control and public deception. For 12 long years, Buhari traversed the nation like a political orphan, contesting elections and facing defeat. However, each loss fortified him, transforming his setbacks into a potent sympathy movement. He convinced the impoverished in the North that his destiny had been thwarted by corrupt politicians.
At his campaign rallies, Buhari presented himself as a desperate man pleading for justice, while his campaign strategists meticulously crafted a narrative portraying him as the only honest man in Nigerian politics. This narrative led the masses to believe that Buhari was suffering alongside them, positioning him as their savior, their last hope.
By 2015, the emotional tide had reached a crescendo; people wept at his rallies. He was finally elected, but instead of rescuing Nigeria, he became one of the country’s most profound disappointments. Today, those same masses who once cried for Buhari now curse his name, having realized that their “messiah” was merely an empty promise. The damage, however, had already been inflicted.
In contrast, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu never played the victim. Instead, he engaged in a long-term strategy. Since leaving office as Lagos State Governor in 2007, Tinubu has meticulously constructed one of the most formidable political structures in Nigerian history. He dominated Lagos, Nigeria’s economic powerhouse, funded and installed governors across the South-West, and built a coalition that birthed the APC.
For 16 years (2007-2023), Tinubu prepared for his moment. When it finally arrived, he boldly declared, “Emi lo kan” (It is my turn). Tinubu understands that winning elections is not merely about being the best candidate; it’s about controlling the system. And that’s precisely what he did. Now, as President, Tinubu is demonstrating that his primary objective was power, not governance. His administration is exacerbating Nigeria’s economic crisis, yet his loyalists defend him, illustrating that in Nigerian politics, loyalty often outweighs competence.
Peter Obi has emerged as a significant political force, yet his ascent mirrors the emotional tactics employed by Buhari. Just like Buhari, Obi’s supporters perceive him as distinct from the corrupt elite, the only one capable of fixing Nigeria, thereby casting him as a victim of the political system. Obi has effectively positioned himself as the voice of the oppressed, making the masses believe he is fighting for them. This is why he continues to garner substantial support, even after losing the 2023 election. But the pressing question remains: if given power, will Obi be any different from Buhari? Or will he too disappoint the people? Only time will reveal the answer.
Among the political figures in Northern Nigeria, Nasir El-Rufai stands out as the most brilliant, controversial, and potentially dangerous. As FCT Minister (2003-2007), he transformed Abuja but also made powerful enemies. During his tenure as Kaduna Governor (2015-2023), he advanced Kaduna’s infrastructure, yet faced accusations of religious bias and authoritarianism. In the 2015, 2019, and 2023 elections, El-Rufai was instrumental in delivering the North to the APC. Despite his brash demeanor and alleged abuses of power, one irrefutable fact remains: El-Rufai is a strategic genius. With his recent shift from APC to SDP, he is clearly positioning himself for something monumental. If a significant political realignment occurs in the North, El-Rufai will be a key player.
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso epitomizes the archetype of a political opportunist, seeking leadership wherever he can. In the PDP, he aimed for control; in the APC, he sought the presidential candidacy; and in the NNPP, he established himself as the supreme leader. Kwankwaso lacks loyalty and long-term vision, driven solely by a selfish desire for power. Despite holding a PhD, he stands as one of the most mis-educated and miscalculated politicians in Nigerian history. His political choices are frequently dictated by sentiment and personal ambition rather than sound reasoning. Even his former deputy, Abdullahi Ganduje, has proven to be a more effective governor. While Ganduje may have his corruptions, he achieved more in infrastructure and economic reforms—areas where Kwankwaso faltered.
Major Hamza Al-Mustapha, once the right-hand man of General Sani Abacha, remains one of Nigeria’s most feared political figures. Despite years of imprisonment, his name still commands respect in the North, capitalizing on his past and the perception of him as a warrior who understands the gritty realities of power. Many believe that if given the opportunity, he would revolutionize the Nigerian system. However, the entrenched powers—the cabals—will never allow him to ascend, understanding that he comprehends Nigeria’s intricacies all too well and is willing to sacrifice everything for the poor.
In Nigerian politics, the game is not about who is the best leader; it revolves around:
- – Who can effectively control the emotions of the masses?
- – Who possesses the most robust political machinery?
- – Who commands recognition, fear, or sympathy from the people?
This is why Buhari leveraged emotions to win, only to ultimately fail. Tinubu played the strategic game, asserting his claim with “emi lo kan.” Peter Obi is following a similar emotional playbook as Buhari, albeit through a different lens. El-Rufai remains a perilous player in Northern politics. Kwankwaso’s ambition will perpetually seek the throne, but he will never sit upon it. Al-Mustapha will forever be a figure of fear, yet will be kept at bay from real power.
Until these realities shift, Nigeria will continue to be governed by those who excel at the game of power rather than those worthy of leadership.
I stand to be corrected.
Thank you.
Imam is the founder of elseLab (agricultural hub), Northfield Colleges.
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