Opponents jittery over Obi’s influence in N’West, says Osuntokun

The Director-General of the Labour Party Presidential Campaign Council, Akin Osuntokun, in this interview with Friday OLOKOR, condemns the attack on the party’s presidential candidate, PETER OBI, in Katsina State recently

It was in the news that the Obi campaign team was attacked in Katsina. Can you shed light on what really happened?

Well, it was a rowdy scene. My sense of it was that it was an organised reaction by some political roller dealers who didn’t like the success of the rally we had in Kano the previous day, which was unexpected. Katsina has the reputation of being one of the most violent states in Nigeria.

Indeed, their governor requested that citizens be armed to defend themselves. So there was a predominant security crisis long before the rally we went to. So from that perspective, we cannot say that it is not expected. And I’m sure they attacked the convoy of President Muhammadu Buhari at one time and injured two security personnel or so.

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So what does this portend for the forthcoming elections?

Ordinarily, an election period in Nigeria is tense and fraught with sporadic violence. But you know Nigeria has been a major location of security breakdowns all over the world. I mean, Nigeria is home to two or three terrorist groups. Boko Haram, ISWAP (Islamic State’s West Africa Province), and, of course, the bandits and others have virtually carved out a territory in Niger State and some other places where they exercise sovereignty over the Nigerian government. If you want to recount incidences of security breakdowns in Nigeria, they are just too prevalent. So given that context, what happened in Katsina cannot be said to be totally unexpected or peculiar.

Even without the context of the general breakdown of law and order in the country, Katsina and Kano seem to have this reputation of attacking convoys of political opponents they do not like.

Remember that almost every election season, this kind of thing comes up. But I also have a sense that the previous rally in Kano State, which took everybody by surprise and implies some kind of popular acceptance of our presidential ticket, took everybody by surprise. And that made them uncomfortable, so they panicked. So, they fought back the way they know how: by terrorising people to cow opponents from trying to campaign or make headway.

When you take all these perspectives together, it is not such an unexpected development and the one that should incite panic.

As I said, Katsina State is one of the epicentres of the security crises Nigeria faces. I am sure that as we speak, there are still some people with kidnappers in the state.

It even got to the point that the governor was having a conference or dialogue with the chief bandit in the state. So the situation in Katsina has degenerated into a special class of its own.

With this scenario, would you say that it was politically motivated by opponents or by bandits themselves?

There are several perspectives. I don’t think one reason disqualifies the other. It’s not just that we have every reason to believe that those opposed to the Kano rally or the Obi-Datti’s penetration of the North-West were behind it.

Thuggery has been part and parcel of Nigerian politics. As a matter of fact, it has been the precursor to banditry and militancy in at least two regions. The origins of Boko Haram are traceable to the era of Ali Modu Sherrif in Borno State. When elections were over, the thugs became a nuisance and eventually metamorphosed into the Boko Haram insurgency. There is a lot of that in the Niger Delta, where people find work as thugs during election season.

Having obtained the necessary arms and equipment, they made it a way of life. So this is the situation in which we found ourselves in Nigeria.

So the thing, of course, is that with or without the political campaign in Katsina, the state has a tendency toward recurrent crises and breakdowns of law and order.

As elections are approaching, do you see this manifesting? What are your fears about Obi’s security and the Labour Party?

A popular politician who has a lot of credibility has nothing to hide from the people. That is usually the case. Of course, there will be one or two crazy, sponsored thugs, but you need to get on with your job or mission regardless of the security risks.

It will not be very logical for me now to project that the election season, which we have entered and is fast reaching its climax, will not experience severe security breakdowns. I have not seen evidence that can assure me to the contrary.

There are some places in Nigeria today where I find it a bit unbelievable that the Independent National Election Commission can conduct elections. For instance, there are several parts of Borno, Katsina, Zamfara, and some other places. So on the basis of what these places have become; it’s unlikely that you’ll have a peaceful election in those places.

The British and American governments issued a statement about a month ago warning of the imminent attacks by Boko Haram, though they didn’t happen. But America also gave a similar prognosis about a week ago. These are very worrisome.

First, I don’t know whether our security agencies know that, based on the way they dismiss or become defensive about what those foreign governments are saying. It implies that they are most likely unaware of it and incapable of dealing with it.

So, as I said, let’s wait and see. I mean, anybody wanting to vote in the election will be concerned. I mean foreign countries that have the resources and sophistication to gather intelligence, say something is going to happen, the likelihood is that it is true. But let’s wait and see how our security agencies will grapple with it.

The south-east has become a hotbed of antagonism, banditry, kidnapping, and all that. INEC offices are being attacked. And the region is supposed to be the strong point of the Labour Party and its presidential candidates. What are your fears about the chances of your party?

I think all those things are a bit exaggerated. But again, I suspect the involvement of fifth columnists. Call a dog a bad name in order to hang it.

It is illogical for a specific zone with preference and serious potential to produce Nigeria’s next president to leave or do nothing, allowing those who want to instigate violence to have a field day.

As I said, I suspect the involvement of a fifth columnist. Somebody will do something and then attribute it to thuggery or terrorism in that area. However, anybody who has the interests of the south-east at heart will know that that kind of violence is counterproductive.

It is the responsibility and obligation of any citizen of that region to ensure that nothing mars the elections and work towards the peaceful conduct of the poll. Those who are doing the attacking are in a terrible minority, but they are no less deadly for it.

But, as I previously stated, I will not rule out the involvement of a fifth columnist, who will do it to justify, most likely, a declaration of state of emergency or to scare people away from voting.

Do you anticipate a run-off in this election because there have been indications that one is likely?

My own prognosis is that our candidate will win without the need for a run-off. A run-off is predicated on the anticipation that none of the candidates will fulfil the conditions for being declared elected. So we are looking forward to a situation in which we will fulfil the conditions, and in the event we do not, we are prepared for the option of a run-off election. So either way, we stand strong.

Would you predict post-election violence in some places?

I don’t have to be a seer to have that premonition. People will most likely reject some electoral outcomes that they believe do not reflect the reality of the political situation. This time around, the electorate is sufficiently educated and motivated to assert itself.

What do you think the Labour Party’s chances are in the South-West, particularly in Lagos?

My position is that if we have a free and fair election in Lagos in the forthcoming election, the Labour Party will win. The reasons are not very difficult to ascertain. My peers and the younger generation are united in their support for Obi. All of my peers and their children are Obidients.

So if you have that kind of support in free and fair elections, the Labour Party will win.