Obasanjo’s endorsement and Obi’s chances in 2023 elections

It’s no longer news that Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has endorsed the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, ahead of the February 25, 2023 presidential election. The endorsement, which came on Sunday, January 1, 2023, was reported to be his new year message to Nigerians. The ex-President who noted that even though none of the frontline candidates is a saint, and stated that Obi is fit to be Nigeria’s next president, came under fire from different quarters.

The All Progressives Congress saw his remarks as a swipe against its presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. The party, in response, reckoned that Obasanjo’s endorsement is indeed worthless. In the same vein, the Peoples Democratic Party argued that the former president’s endorsement of Obi would amount to nothing. And the presidency capped it all when it fired back at Obasanjo, describing him as a ‘morally dirty’ person.

Regarding Obi and his slim chances of victory as argued by some, many, notwithstanding Obasanjo’s endorsement, wondered if Peter Obi is poised to win the 2023 presidential election. To state the obvious Obi has won the hearts of thousands of young people desperate for a change around the country, especially in the South. But his chances of winning the 2023 elections are already threatened by a lot of factors.

First, it is believed that Labour Party does not have the structure to command any key political position in the country. This is a party that doesn’t have a governor, members of the National Assembly, or state assembly members. And politics in this country depends on the structures you have at these various levels (local, state and national). Who is expecting a miracle to happen simply because Peter Obi is in the Labour Party?

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The opportunity of the Labour Party to flex its muscles in the July 2022 Osun State governorship election ended in tears as the former deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives and candidate of the Labour Party, Lasun Yusuf, lost the election. In fact, he has officially defected to the PDP.

Second, the South-East region, which ideally should have been Obi’s major fan base, is already swept away in the floodwaters of all sorts of Biafra agitations. Armed separatists have continuously warned that there would be no election in the region. It’s a no-brainer to imagine that Obi is definitely going to perform poorly in the polls in the South-East region as even gunmen have repeatedly attacked offices of the Independent National Electoral Commission. So given these conditions, who will be bold to go and cast their votes?

But come to think of it, is Obasanjo’s support even relevant? The elder statesman is considered one of the most influential Nigerians alive, but it is argued that his support may not guarantee any victory to any candidate contesting in the forthcoming presidential election.

Taking a cursory look at history would tell better. In 2019 he supported the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, who contested on the PDP platform, against the incumbent President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari(retd). Buhari won that election in 2019.

But we shouldn’t judge very quickly because the candidates that Obasanjo (who was Nigeria’s president between 1999 and 2007) supported in the presidential elections of 2007, 2011, and 2015 all emerged victorious.

However, it is imperative to note the former president’s political force in the South-West region is already fading. Obasanjo currently is not a member of any political party.

As the two political giants (PDP and APC) continue to lock horns over who will take over the South-West and South-South regions, and as the APC continues to be a strong force in the North, it’s a crude joke to imagine that Obasanjo’s endorsement of Peter Obi carries any weight, at least in the forthcoming presidential election.