The Tony Blair Institute of Global Change has called on Nigerian authorities not to overlook the threats posed by the Indigenous People of Biafra, Bandits, and Boko Haram/Islamic State for West African Province terrorists to disrupt the 2023 general elections.
The organisation warned that these groups are more likely to step up their attacks to scupper the 2023 elections.
In a report released on Thursday, the organisation specifically warned that the one million Independent National Electoral Commission workers and ad hoc staff, observers, and journalists risk being attacked by IPOB, bandits, and terrorists.
The report partly read, “Three of the most active violent groups in Nigeria – Boko Haram, bandits and IPOB – threaten the 2023 election in different ways. Boko Haram’s factions will try to endanger the election because this is one of the group’s publicly declared ideological objectives.
“They will do so by stepping up attacks, including bombings in major cities while displacing some communities and ensuring remote ones are inaccessible for campaigning or holding elections. While bandits are not purposely anti-democratic, their attacks on villages and displacement of more than a million people are set to disenfranchise many Nigerians.
“Meanwhile, IPOB targets critical election infrastructure and threatens candidates and voters while attacking northern residents of the South-East region. Additionally, all three will actively target the one million election workers who will be transported across Nigeria as well as the thousands of journalists and observers who will monitor the election.
“Boko Haram will attack on ideological basis, bandits will carry out kidnaps-for-ransom, and IPOB will seek out journalists and observers to send its separatist message while demonstrating its control over the South-East.
“If the past is any indication, coordinated attacks by each faction of Boko Haram are to be expected in the period leading up to the 2023 election.”
The organisation also said the decision of the ruling All Progressives Congress to settle for a same-faith ticket had heightened the risk for widespread social unrest.
“Past experience shows that an election can be a trigger for violence, with the potential for widespread social unrest. This risk is heightened by the ruling party selecting presidential and vice-presidential candidates drawn from the same faith as well as the spread of disinformation on social media.”
A successful election, according to the institute, can send a strong message to other African states where democracy has been backsliding.
It, however, urged the Nigerian security, law enforcement, and intelligence agencies to use the few months left before the February election to push back violent groups and secure vulnerable communities as well as liberate those already seized.
A security expert, Oladele Fajana, said with the antecedents of the groups, such attacks should be expected.
If you have been following the trends of attacks of these groups, you should expect bigger attacks from them before the elections. Our security operatives should not go to sleep because of the little attacks we are having now. We must not wait for them to launch an attack before going after them. The emphasis at this point should be on intelligence gathering.
Another security expert, Timothy Avele, called on the security agencies to prepare for pre-election and post-election security threats using advanced threat intelligence warning techniques.
Efforts to get the Force spokesperson, Muyiwa Adejobi, and the Chief Press Secretary to the Chairman of INEC, Rotimi Oyekanmi, were not successful.
Calls to their lines were not answered. Responses from messages sent to them are still being awaited as of the time of filing this report.
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