In retrospect of 2022

We could say that the pandemic in 2020 changed the world.  We could say that the world stumbled out of that moment that changed the course of history in 2021. But in 2022, everything really changed. Geopolitics, typically a dormant beast, awoke with a vengeance early in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. The result of that action meant that the terms; cost of living, inflation, and energy security, became deeply ingrained in the global socioeconomic and political discourse. Pretty much everyone, not just investors, now follows central banks, currency movements, stimulus announcements, supply chain notifications, and corporate earnings.

In 2022, voters around the world also spoke out clearly and loudly, not always in a good way. In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu is back, prompting Israel’s Ambassador to France, Yael German, to resign in protest because Netanyahu struck a deal with extremists to bring him back to power. Instability is a theme in the United Kingdom as a post-Brexit and post-Elizabethan paradigm. The ruling Tory party are bleeding themselves out of Downing Street as they all have knives pointed at one another as the premiership became a revolving door.

One PM’s tenure in office ended up being shorter than the shelf life of lettuce. More countries moved further to the right, meaning that reactionary politics will be more commonplace over the next few years. On a positive note, though, Jair Bolsonaro’s valiant attempt to be the “Tropical Trump” who won a second term was rejected by Brazilian peers. Meanwhile, by replacing Uhuru Kenyatta with William Ruto, Kenya demonstrated its shift away from elections based on ethnicity, which were usually accompanied by violence. At the same time, American voters chose to overlook his weak economic performance and not punish Joe Biden during the country’s midterms in November.

The catalyst for that bucking of the trend is likely the country’s culture wars given that many were energised by the conservative Supreme Court’s overturning of abortion rights. One thing that bears watching was Zhongnanhai being forced to have a rare change of heart when mainland Chinese, who cannot vote, voted against a harsh COVID-19 policy on the streets. The fallout of that is that the pandemic might just make a comeback this year as a largely unvaccinated Chinese population goes out and mixes with the rest of humanity, creating new variants of the disease.

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Closer to home, a festival of coups in West Africa has ECOWAS considering the possibility of establishing a standby intervention force. Russia has made inroads in Mali at France’s expense, and France has doubled down in Chad as the Americans build up assets in Niger, firmly establishing global geopolitics in our region. Ghana is currently experiencing its worst economic crisis in decades. To deal with jihadist threats in the Sahel, and maritime renegades in the Gulf of Guinea, the smaller states have relied on the network of regional security organisations. It was an unfortunately active year in security affairs due to the resurgent effort of an ascendant Islamic State West African Province in the North-East, the near ubiquity of armed gangs in swaths of North-West and central Nigeria, some of whom number in hundreds and few thousands, as well as the ever-present challenge of separatists in the South-East, and ravenous militant groups in the Delta. Poverty, recessions, economic migration, and democratic discontent are all firmly entrenched. Like the long lines at petrol stations in 2022, Nigeria is at risk due to record unemployment, a record drop in terms of living standards, and widespread dissatisfaction with politics.

The prospect of the most competitive elections in Nigeria in decades comes this year. It will be a vote of superlatives. A horse race that may end up in a run-off, a first in Nigerian history, has been thrown off course by the most viable third-party candidate in recent memory through the record numbers of registered voters. Solving escalating insecurity, combating gnawing poverty, expanding economic opportunity, and forging a sense of national consciousness are all huge tasks for the next administration. Rarely are the stakes greater or the error margin smaller. Personally, I believe that the ruling party’s candidate should not win simply because his party has delivered record unemployment, 21.47 per cent inflation, N43,000 for a 50kg bag of rice, N100 for a single egg, N120 for a single packet of noodles, N800 for a loaf of sliced bread, N809 per litre of diesel, petrol scarcity, N745 per $1, 1.4 million Nigerians displaced by floods this year with 600 people dead, and a generally harder life, and more casual brazenness on the part of public officials. I have deliberately not spoken about our runaway public debt…

Nigerians need to learn to show our political class that the reward for failure cannot and should not be more time in office. But I fear we will not be able to send that message out. In the 2023 elections, while I think the turnout will be much higher than in recent times, I fear that we will not take the route that the Kenyans have taken, and we will ultimately default to our primordial silos.

I fear that Nigeria will still lose regardless of who wins in two months. The only thing I can now do is to pray and put Nigeria in the hands of God. I fear that even God is tired of us, after all, just a few days ago, a police officer told the mother of a pregnant woman killed by a policeman to “leave it to God.” Why will the Almighty not be tired of us? But what can we do?

• Cheta Nwanze is a partner at SBM Intelligence