Democrat Kamala Harris has a sweeping lead over Republican Donald Trump − among voters who have already cast their ballots, that is.
A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll shows the vice president leading the former president by 63%-34%, close to 2-1, among those who have already voted.
That preference turns around among those who plan to wait until Election Day to vote, with Trump ahead 52%-35%.
As some states have begun early mail-in and in-person voting, one in seven respondents said they had already voted. A third said they plan to vote early; that group supported Harris by 52%-39%. And nearly half said they’ll wait until Election Day.
Overall, Harris was favored by 45%, Trump by 44% − a coin-toss contest.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters, taken by landline and cell phone Oct. 14-18, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Among those who have already voted, one in five volunteered “abortion rights/women’s rights” as their most important issue, second only to the economy/inflation.
In 2020, when early voting surged because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the partisan differences on when people vote sometimes fueled misleading perceptions on election night. Some states don’t allow early votes to be counted until Election Day. That means the first returns based only on in-person voting created a “red mirage” in Pennsylvania and elsewhere − that is, big and misleading leads for Trump before early votes were factored in.
Democrats were about twice as likely as Republicans to cast mail-in ballots four years ago, in part because Trump claimed without evidence that early voting was subject to fraud. This year, the GOP is doing more to urge its supporters to vote early.
The early turnout among Harris’ supporters carries advantages for Democrats.
“First, large Harris voter leads are being banked every day,” said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “Second, it gives the Harris campaign some time to persuade Election Day voters.” That would include appeals to “some previously reliable Democratic voters who have drifted away over the past few weeks, like young Black and Latino men.”
In 2020, when early voting surged because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the partisan differences on when people vote sometimes fueled misleading perceptions on election night. Some states don’t allow early votes to be counted until Election Day. That means the first returns based only on in-person voting created a “red mirage” in Pennsylvania and elsewhere − that is, big and misleading leads for Trump before early votes were factored in.
Democrats were about twice as likely as Republicans to cast mail-in ballots four years ago, in part because Trump claimed without evidence that early voting was subject to fraud. This year, the GOP is doing more to urge its supporters to vote early.
The early votes for Harris are also boosting Democrats down the ballot.
Those who have already voted say by 63%-33% that they support Democratic congressional candidates. Overall, the poll found a 47% Democratic to 45% Republican split on the generic congressional ballot.
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