Democracy in Nigeria has passed through major phases and developmental tests in over two decades. Despite its many challenges in the country, a new report titled Open Society Barometer indicates that democracy is still preferred by many citizens, VICTOR AYENI reports
Democracy, according to Britannica, has been defined as ‘a system of government in which laws, policies, leadership, and major undertakings of a state or other polity are directly or indirectly decided by the people’.
Nigeria returned to democracy in 1999 after three decades of almost uninterrupted military rule and ever since, democratic governance has passed through diverse challenges characterised by keen political competition, ethnic and religious clashes, resource allocation rivalries, human rights violations, electoral violence, corruption and economic turmoil.
On February 25, 2023, millions of Nigerians went to the poll to elect Africa most populous country’s president. A former Lagos State Governor, Bola Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, was declared winner of the election by the Independent National Electoral Commission.
The presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, Atiku Abubakar, who came second, and the Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, who came third, however, asked the court to invalidate the election alleging irregularities.
While the election results were being challenged at the Presidential Election Petitions Tribunal by Tinubu’s two main rivals, European Union observers said the 2023 elections were marred by problems “which damaged trust in INEC” and “reduced trust in the process and challenged the right to vote.”
On Wednesday, September 6, the country’s Presidential Election Petitions Tribunal in Abuja delivered its verdict and rejected the allegations raised by Atilku and Obi’s lawyers for lacking concrete grounds to warrant its invalidation. The judgment followed same pattern in Nigeria’s previous elections.
With a population of over 200 million, many Nigerians still hope for a vibrant democratic system with strong, independent institutions that will hold the government accountable, ensure social justice, and deliver the dividends of democracy.
Despite the aforementioned, a new report, Open Society Barometer, has indicated an enduring faith in democratic principles among the global public, including Nigerians.
The new report, which was published on Monday by the Open Society Foundations and exclusively made available to PUNCH, was based on a survey of over 36,344 respondents in a representative group of 30 countries around the world.
Launched in September 2023, the Open Society Barometer serves as a global reality check, asking people each year about the issues affecting their lives, communities, countries and the wider world — and how best to address them.
The polls, which were conducted between May and July 2023 by the OSF team and partners, indicate that on the average, 86 per cent of the respondents want to live in a democratic state, and despite its shortcomings, people still believe in the potential of democracy to generate solutions to the common challenges they face.
In his foreword to the report, the President of OSF, Mark Malloch-Brown, explains that the gravest threat to democracy is not the rival appeal of authoritarianism but rather the question of whether democratic leaders can deliver for their citizens.
He also points out that while it seems that advancing polycrisis – widespread social unease, rising inflation, escalating climate crisis, global health emergencies and food and energy crisis – signals the decline of democracy, there is still much trust in its principles.
Malloch-Brown says, “The reports of democracy’s demise are greatly exaggerated. In fact, it has a strong pulse. And the gravest threat it faces is not the rival appeal of authoritarianism but rather the question of whether democratic leaders can deliver for their populations.
“People want to believe in open societies in which checks on power, pluralistic and independent institutions, minority protections, and individual rights enable all to participate. But the evidence of that model improving their lives is all too patchy.
“That is the central finding of this new Open Society Barometer. Between May and July, our team and partners surveyed over 36,000 respondents in a representative group of 30 countries around the world. Building on a similar exercise conducted last year, the results paint a detailed picture of the attitudes, fears, and hopes of citizens in states with a collective population of over 5.5 billion. They are at once hopeful and sobering.
“With the rise of authoritarianism and populism, new debates about the relative efficacy of rival systems of government, and the acceleration of the so-called ‘polycrisis,’ it is easy to conclude that democracy is doomed to decline. But our polling shows a broad and enduring faith in its principles among the global public.”
The OSF President further explains that the polling lends credence to the view that democratic governments can deliver the economic, civil and social benefits that their citizens want better than authoritarian regimes.
He adds, “Those surveyed strongly tend to the view that authoritarian regimes are less able than democracies to fulfill these needs. Only 20 percent believe that the latter can ‘deliver what citizens want.’
“Not only are most people unconvinced by the alternatives to democracy, they also identify with open society principles. On average, majorities of between 85 per cent and 95 per cent agree it is wrong for governments to deny access to individual rights on grounds of appearance, religion, sexual or gender orientation, or in cases of disruptive acts of protest.”
Weakening democracy, yet still preferred
Explaining further the findings in the Open Society Barometer report, Malloch-Brown notes that about 65 per cent of respondents across 30 countries said they would prefer their country built relationships with democracies rather than authoritarian governments.
“The same pattern applies to democracy’s global sibling: multilateralism. On average, 66 per cent of respondents believe democracies contribute more than authoritarian countries to international cooperation. That sense was strongest among respondents in Kenya and Nigeria, where nearly 80 per cent agreed,” he adds.
However, the OSF president highlights a disturbing correlation between the ages of the people polled and their support for authoritarianism, noting that the faith in democracy may weaken with each generation.
“That may be linked to probably our most disturbing finding: there is a strong correlation between age and attitudes at odds with democratic principles. Among those aged 56 and above, 26 per cent were supportive of a strong leader who does away with assemblies and elections.
“So although most people globally still have faith in democracy, that faith is running on fumes. And these findings suggest that it may be set to weaken with each generation,” Malloch-Brown states.
Based on the deductions of the authors of the OSB, Chanu Peiris and Natalie Samarasinghe, democracy remains the most popular form of government globally, with 86 per cent of respondents wanting to live in a democratic state and nearly two-thirds (62 per cent) preferring it over any other system.
Ninety-two per cent of Nigerians say it is important for them to live in a country that is democratically governed. For Kenya it is 90 per cent; Ghana and Senegal, each 89 per cent, and for South Africa 83 per cent. Based on a global average of 86 per cent in favour of democracy, most Nigerians still preferred democracy to any other political system.
In another chart showing the percentage of respondents per country who believe democracy is preferable to any other kind of government, Nigeria scores 69 per cent on a global average of 62 per cent.
According to the report, Nigerians and Kenyans fall into the higher figures of people who think democracies contribute more towards global cooperation.
“Looking beyond national borders, people also think democratic states perform better at the global level. Few respondents (29 per cent) think countries should cooperate less when making decisions on the global stage, and two-thirds (66 per cent) think democracies contribute more to global cooperation, with Kenya and Nigeria reporting higher figures (nearly 80 per cent),” the report notes.
Human rights and political violence
The Universal Declaration of Human Rights which was adopted by the United Nations in 1948 sets out to universally protect fundamental human rights. Since then, many people believe the concept of human rights retains relevance and value globally.
The OSB report notes that when people were asked if human rights have been a “force for good in the world,” a global average of 72 per cent of people agreed.
“Among the countries with most support for the statement were Nigeria (86 per cent), Kenya (85 per cent), Bangladesh, Colombia, and Ethiopia (each 82 per cent), and India (80 per cent).
“The perception that civil and political rights are prioritised in high-income countries and economic and social rights are prioritised in middle – and low-income countries does not appear to hold true,” the report states.
In a bar chart showing the categories of rights that are important to people, about 31 per cent of Nigerians are in favour of civil and political rights (the right to vote, a fair trial if accused of a crime, freedom of speech, a ban on torture, stopping discrimination) and 45 per cent were in favour of economic and social rights (rights to food, housing, education, health, and social security).
About 14 per cent express their support for environmental rights (right to a safe, clean, healthy and sustainable environment) and seven per cent supported digital rights (ability to communicate online, control over one’s data).
According to the report’s findings, there is also considerable support for accountability when rights are abused. A global average of 63 per cent agreed that “tools such as travel bans and freezing bank accounts are useful ways to bring human rights violators to justice.”
“Respondents from Asia and Africa were most likely to endorse this statement, with Bangladesh (79 per cent), Nigeria (78 per cent), Egypt (74 per cent), Ethiopia and Kenya (both 73 percent), and Pakistan (72 percent) all registering above average support,” the authors observe.
As regard respondents per country who believe having a leader who does not bother with parliaments or elections is a good way of running an election, 64 per cent of Nigerians disagreed while 21 per cent agreed.
The authors of the OSB note that age appeared to be a factor which shaped attitudes toward democracy. They point out that there is less enthusiasm among 18-to-35-year-olds for democracy while 57 per cent preferred it to other forms of government.
“For those aged 56 and above, the figure was 71 per cent. The 18-35 cohort recorded higher support for army rule (42 per cent) than those aged 36-55 (33 per cent) and those aged 56 or above (20 per cent). Similarly, 35 per cent of this youngest age category was sympathetic to the idea of a strong leader who does away with parliaments and elections. The figures were 32 per cent for those aged 36-55 and 26 percent for those aged 56 and above,” they add
The report also states that, “Respondents demonstrated a widespread fear of political unrest leading to violence. A global majority of 58 per cent—and majorities in 21 of the countries polled—agreed with the statement ‘I fear that political unrest in my country could lead to violence in the next year.’ Fear was highest in South Africa and Kenya (79 per cent), Colombia (77 per cent) and Nigeria (75 per cent).”
Corruption breeding mistrust
The report presents a bar chart of countries which trust politicians to work in their best interests. While the global average is 30 per cent, Nigeria is 27 per cent.
The report explains, “Of the institutions represented, respondents most trust charity leaders (51 per cent), followed by leaders of international institutions and religious leaders (both 45 per cent).
“People from low- and lower-middle income countries were the most likely to trust leaders of international institutions, with the highest levels of trust in Bangladesh (81 per cent), Kenya (72 per cent), Ethiopia (69 per cent), India (68 per cent), and Nigeria (67 per cent).”
Corroborating its observation that many Nigerians are more likely to trust leaders of international institution, the poll also indicated that 65 per cent of Nigerians believed that China’s rise will have a positive impact on their country while 15 per cent disagreed.
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