Biden will seek to establish red lines in high stakes meeting with China’s Xi

BALI, Indonesia — On the eve of his first face-to-face meeting with his Chinese counterpart since taking office, President Joe Biden received some news that could give him more leverage.

Democrats were projected by NBC News and other outlets to have won enough seats to maintain control of the Senate, defying the historical odds in the midterm elections. “I know I’m coming in stronger” to the meeting Monday with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Biden told reporters, exulting over a surprising political victory during a conference of southeast Asian leaders.

A key test for Biden is if he can use his strengthened position to reduce tensions in the bilateral relationship, which bears global consequences. Biden sorely needs Xi’s cooperation if the U.S. is to curb threats of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, deter North Korean missile launches and help end Russia’s war with Ukraine.

Even so, the White House is downplaying any hope of a major breakthrough when Biden sits down with Xi in person. 

Relations between the two countries have deteriorated to the point where the central goal of the summit, in the eyes of Biden administration officials, seems to be keeping things from getting even more bleak. Seldom has a presidential meeting with so much at stake also carried such low expectations for what might practically be achieved.

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Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, predicted a few possible outcomes for the meeting, one of which is that it devolves into a “screaming match” or tit-for-tat lectures that “leave things exactly where they are, or worse.”

A successful meeting would be one that results in the two sides opening more lines of communication at lower levels of government, Biden administration officials said. They also hope that Biden and Xi will come away with a better sense of each other’s non-negotiable positions and “red lines.”

“I wouldn’t look at this as a meeting that will generate a specific deliverable or policy outcome,” a senior administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to talk more freely. “It’s a chance for these two guys to continue the conversations they’ve had.”

After House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August, China cut off routine communications with the U.S. military in retaliation, the official continued. 

That’s the sort of channel the U.S. wants to preserve, the official added. “We’d like to see this meeting form a foundation for keeping the channels of communication open at a lower-than-leader level.”

The two nations spent weeks quietly planning the sit-down, expected to take place at 5:30 p.m local time and last two hours. Biden and Xi are both in Bali for a conference of the Group of 20, whose 19 nations along with the European Union comprise about 80% of the global economy.

“There’s value in leaders talking to each other,” said Robert O’Brien, national security adviser in Donald Trump’s White House.

Biden’s meeting with Xi is the centerpiece of a week-long foreign trip that has also taken him to Egypt and Cambodia for meetings on the environment, the economy and global security.

A tough challenge for Biden will be coaxing Xi — a steely negotiator — to drop prepared talking points and engage in a more honest and free-flowing discussion, foreign policy analysts said.

“I don’t think personal diplomacy will help that much,” said Victor Cha, a former director for Asian affairs in George W. Bush’s White House. “Each has his set of talking points he wants to go through, and the interaction will be tense and ‘candid.’”

The two leaders, who both served as vice presidents in their respective countries, have developed a personal tie during their political ascent. Biden likes to tell a story about how they discussed the larger meaning of the U.S. in a visit to China when he was former President Barack Obama’s number two.

But their relationship has faced mounting challenges since each became president. When a reporter suggested last year that the two were old friends, Biden bristled and replied, “It’s just pure business.”

While Biden is naturally garrulous and informal, experts are skeptical about his chances of luring Xi into an open-ended back and forth. (“That’s not Xi’s style,” O’Brien said.) And given the mutual suspicion in Washington and Beijing, the mood isn’t expected to be chummy.

The Biden administration sees Xi as the leader of a bullying nation with visions of global dominance. “Many of our allies and partners, especially in the Indo-Pacific, stand on the frontlines of [China’s] coercion and are rightly determined to seek to ensure their own autonomy, security, and prosperity,” the administration stated in a national security strategy paper released last month.

Still, the U.S. hopes to find ways to work cooperatively with China, particularly when it comes to areas like global stability where their interests may align. Biden will press Xi to use his influence to roll back North Korea’s nuclear program, administration officials said. The hermit kingdom has been stepping up tests of ballistic missiles, stoking fears among U.S. allies, including Japan and South Korea.

“We recognize that with each launch, [the North Koreans] learn something,” the senior Biden administration official said. “And that’s not good for anybody in the peninsula and in the region. So, the president looks forward to being able to talk about the larger international community’s concerns about where things are going in Pyongyang.”

At an east Asian summit meeting on Sunday, various leaders approached Biden to discuss the Democrats’ success in retaining control of the Senate, said Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser.

“Look, it will impact the confidence with which Biden goes into the conversation” with Xi, said Rep. Andy Kim, (D., N.J.), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “No doubt about that.”

“I’d much rather Biden go into this conversation with the outcome we had in the midterms than if things were more difficult,” he added.

But like Biden, Xi will also arrive at the meeting having fortified his position at home. Across the table from Biden will be a Chinese president who has tightened his hold on the top spot after securing himself a historic third term last month.

H.R. McMaster, who served as national security adviser in the Trump White House, said Biden must deliver an unflinching message to China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, one that leaves no doubt the U.S. has “the resolve to compete with him and that we’re not going  to back off.”