By Adewale Adeoye
My brother sir, resolving a conflict may be more complex than imagined. Let me say that I agree totally with you that coups are aberration, forceful seizure of elected Governments is bad. In the case, it has happened. How do we resolve the problem?
Military coups are as bad as Constitutional Coups where leaders change the constitution to extend their tenures, it is as bad as economic coups, where people are stripped naked, exploited and humiliated by economic programmes and progrom implemented by the Government.
When a people realise that their votes don’t count, that democracy is for a few brutal elite as we had in many Post colonial African countries, they work to subvert democracy, they vote for COUPs which is also a democratic decision.
In Niger, the ousted President was “democratically elected” by colonial powers. He has failed to meet the aspirations of the people so the Army who are also part of the people rose and removed him.
So,the antidote to stop coups is good governance.
Now, is it right for ECOWAS to intervene? Yes. Should ECOWAS use force? No. What is the solution: Dialogue, sanctions and constructive engagement probably for another election that the principal actors will not partake. The interests of the ousted President and the new military Govts should be considered.
If you ask the ousted President to come back, he will persecute the leaders of the coup. If you say the coupists should go by force, they might kill the ousted President in the heat of battle to defend their country.
Let me say that Nigeria alone with 234,000 soldiers against Niger of combined security of 12,000 can defeat Niger in one week but at what cost?
Before we intervene, we must study the dynamics.
The ousted President is Arab. His vice is Tuareg. The majority of people in Niger Republic are Hausa. Elections in Niger have always been manipulated by France to favour the minority ethnic group.
Africa is passing through decolonisation on its own and a redefinition of the ethnic configuration imposes by the imperialist forces.
It just shows that lies do not last for ever. Truth will catch up.
Any attack on that country, Niger by Nigeria will not be popular among Hausa and even Fulani population in Nigeria and in Niger.
If Nigeria goes ahead and remove the military leaders, at what cost? That region already is seething with anger against regimes considered as Western rookies and there is a stream of Islamic fundamentalists thirst for blood.
If Nigeria becomes their focal point, the West will not be able to help us.
There may be resurgence of violence resistance among the civil populace in Republic of Niger population of Hausa and also even within some sympathisers in the Nigerian Army and security force.
The Northern Nigeria areas close to Niger is hotbed of violent extremists. They may seize the conflict and exploit to the brim.
The Tinubu Government is new. Attacking Niger may add to his popularity in the West, but it may also lead to internal implosion in Nigeria and invitation to extremists elements into Nigeria considering that our borders in the North are fluid. Armed groups are already moving from Southern Sudan and from Maghreb down to Nigeria. In Sudan, there are some 10million Hausa people already displaced by the war.
They are trooping to Niger. A new armed alliance against Nigeria is a possibility.
We must act with wisdom.
There is also international dimension. Both Chad, Guinea, Mali and Algeria are with the new military leader including Uganda. A regional war my blow up that may spill into Nigeria.
Many interests at home and abroad are waiting to feast on such a development to the peril of the local population.
It may not start immediately, but it can happen in months after the defeat of the military leaders in Niger.
The new President Tinubu’s Govt should be very careful.
By Adewale Adeoye
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