By Olayemi Olawuni
Not long ago, I shared my thoughts on why Governor Ademola Adeleke was unlikely to defect to the African Democratic Congress, ADC. At the time, the party had become the new favorite in Osun’s political circles. But my point was simple — it’s hard to picture Adeleke and the former governor, now leading the ADC in the state, working under the same roof. Their paths, interests, and political instincts are too far apart.
That debate has since gone quiet. What’s now heating up is something even more unexpected — the idea that Adeleke might join the All Progressives Congress, APC. What started as quiet whispers is now becoming something louder. Many believe Adeleke is preparing to walk away from the PDP and enter the APC fold.
But the idea isn’t landing smoothly. Even inside the APC, there are strong objections. And it’s easy to see why. The history between both camps is rough. Over the years, it’s been all-out war — sharp words, tough accusations, scorched-earth politics. The kind of rivalry where bridges weren’t just burned — they were blown to bits.
In Osun, as in much of Nigeria, politics often sticks to an unwritten rule: stay in your lane, I’ll stay in mine. Still, every now and then, the game shifts, and people who couldn’t stand each other end up working side by side.
One thing about the APC is its structure. It listens to the top. If the leadership says Adeleke is in — and that he’ll be the party’s flagbearer in 2026 — the rest will likely fall in line. Maybe not happily, but they will. That’s how party politics works. Structure before sentiment.
Once the big decisions are made, the next step is negotiation.
There’s no need to sugarcoat it. There’s room for everyone to be accommodated. If Adeleke moves into the APC and becomes the clear choice for 2026, the result will be the usual backroom game — offers, adjustments, and trade-offs. Long-time APC loyalists, especially those who’ve weathered tough years, will expect their share at the state level. Adeleke’s own allies, crossing over from the PDP, will be taken care of at the federal level, where the APC currently holds sway.
In the end, everyone gets something. Nothing revolutionary — just classic politics.
For Adeleke, it means a break from PDP’s endless internal wrangling. For the APC, it’s a big gain heading into the next general election. Adeleke strengthens his support base with a national structure. The APC extends its reach across Osun. No one walks away empty-handed.
This isn’t new. Political opponents joining forces isn’t rare in Nigeria. What looks like betrayal to one group is seen as strategy by another. Around here, what really counts is not where a politician stood yesterday — it’s where he’s most useful today.
So, as Osun 2026 approaches, the atmosphere feels like something big is taking shape. Alliances are shifting. Silences are growing louder. But if things continue the way they’re going, one thing will likely happen — everyone will be settled. Old APC, new APC, returnees, loyalists, undecided players. All will find a spot.
And when the dust settles, as always, Osun would have played the game its own way. Carefully, chaotically — but never without calculation.
Olayemi writes from Ile-Ife.
