President Donald Trump has promised to deport millions of people who are living in the United States without permission. This population is commonly referred to as “undocumented,” “unauthorized” or “illegal.” But these terms are not entirely accurate. A significant number are in the country with temporary permissions — though many are set to expire during Trump’s term.
For the last decade, the best estimates put this population around 11 million. But the number of people crossing U.S. borders reached a record level in 2022 before falling last year. More recent estimates put the number of people without legal status or with temporary protection from deportation at almost 14 million in 2024.
Many of them have permission to be here, at least for now.
“It’s true that immigration is high, but it’s hard to sort out who is an undocumented immigrant,” said Robert Warren, a demographer and the former statistics director at what was then the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service. “Most of the public looks at everyone as undocumented — asylum-seekers, TPS, DACA — but it’s important to really figure out who is included.”
The New York Times compared estimates from several research organizations and the federal government, as well as more recent administrative data, to better understand who these immigrants are, how they got here and which of them may be most vulnerable to deportation under Trump.
Those with permission fall under the protection of many programs.
In an effort to deter illegal crossings, President Joe Biden created a way for migrants to make an appointment to cross the southern border through a smartphone app called CBP One. The administration also created special pathways for people fleeing humanitarian crises in Afghanistan, Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, Ukraine and Venezuela and extended temporary protection from deportation for people from certain countries through a program known as Temporary Protected Status.
Upon taking office, Trump issued executive orders stating his desire to end those programs, and existing appointments made through the CBP One app were canceled
Immigrants who entered the country through these programs were following the rules at the time, but Trump and other Republicans have attacked them and said the programs are illegal.
Millions more have applied for asylum and are allowed to remain in the country while their cases wend through immigration court — though very few asylum claims are ultimately granted. An Obama-era program known as DACA protects from deportation about 540,000 people brought to the country as children.
The Biden administration also deferred deportation for other groups of people, like those who have applied for protection because they were victims of or witnesses to a crime.
Trump may have limited power to immediately remove these groups.
Many of the permissions offering humanitarian relief are set to expire during the Trump administration, including some that Biden recently extended. If the Trump administration were to try to end these protections sooner, it would most likely face lawsuits.
This past week, Trump issued executive orders ending humanitarian parole programs for people from specific countries. He also gave immigration officials the power to quickly deport migrants who were allowed into the country temporarily under those programs and through the CBP One app, a move that is likely to face legal challenges.
Trump cannot easily deport the more than 2.6 million people who are awaiting a hearing or a decision on an asylum claim. He could try to hire more immigration judges to decide these cases, but even with a significant infusion of new funds, it would take years to work through the backlog.
DACA is not accepting new applications, and its future is uncertain because of a lawsuit filed by several Republican state attorneys general.
People can have more than one status, and many of these groups overlap.
Many people in the country with temporary permission fall under overlapping programs.
For example, the bulk of the people who arrived through one of the Biden-era humanitarian pathways were granted parole for two years. Many of them now also have Temporary Protected Status. Along with those who used the CBP One app to cross the southern border, they can apply for asylum within the first year they are in the United States.
These immigrants come from all over the world.
More than half of those who are in the United States without authorization have been here for 10 years or more.
Mexicans remain by far the largest group of people living in the country without authorization, but their share has declined significantly since the 1990s, according to data from the Pew Research Center.
An influx of people fleeing humanitarian and economic crises came from Central America during Trump’s first term, and many of them are still in the country.
Few immigrants can be swiftly removed. Even fewer are in custody.
Out of all those who are in the country without permanent legal status, Trump has said the top priority for deportation will be criminals. There are around 655,000 noncitizens living in the U.S. with criminal convictions or pending charges, according to data from Immigration and Customs Enforcement, though many of these charges are for minor offenses such as traffic violations.
There were about 39,000 immigrants in ICE custody at the end of December, near capacity for holding facilities.
The Trump administration may also focus its enforcement efforts on the nearly 1.4 million people whom an immigration judge has already ordered to be removed from the country.
Many of the rest have been living in the country for years and have developed ties to their communities, including having children born in the United States. It would require a significant amount of time and resources to locate and remove them.
Methodology
There is no direct measure of the population living in the United States without authorization, as no major government survey collects information on immigration status.
In order to estimate the size of that population, most researchers rely on a method that starts with survey data from the Census Bureau. They then adjust it using administrative records and other data to subtract the number of immigrants who are legally in the country from the total number of residents born outside the United States.
The number of people waiting for an asylum claim comes from the Pew Research Center as of 2023. The number of people with Temporary Protected Status comes from the Congressional Research Service as of September. The number of DACA recipients comes from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services as of September. Figures for the number of people who have entered through humanitarian parole from specific countries and through a CBP One appointment at the southern border are from Customs and Border Protection as of December. Many people may be counted in more than one of these groups.
Figures for the number of ICE cases pending and paused are for the national docket and come from the agency’s annual report as of September. The number of noncitizens with a criminal charge or conviction comes from ICE, as of Jan. 8.
