Every year, Nigeria loses a huge amount of money—around $10 billion—to corruption, waste, and inefficiency. That’s money that could have been used to fix hospitals, build schools, and repair roads. Instead, it disappears, leaving many Nigerians to struggle with broken systems. Now, the government plans to borrow $2.2 billion (about ₦1.76 trillion, assuming an exchange rate of ₦800 to $1) as part of a ₦47.9 trillion budget for 2025. But there’s a big problem: some of the numbers they are using to make these plans don’t add up, and it could hurt Nigerians even more.
Here’s why this matters. The government is saying it will borrow this money at ₦800 to $1, but right now, the real value of the naira is closer to ₦1,655 for $1. That means the actual cost of the loan isn’t ₦1.76 trillion but closer to ₦3.64 trillion—more than double. Why does this matter? Because when Nigeria borrows money in dollars, it has to repay it in dollars, but the country earns money in naira. If the naira keeps losing value, Nigeria will need to use even more of its money to pay back the loan. This means less money will be available for schools, hospitals, and other important things.
The budget also assumes that crude oil will sell for $75 per barrel and that Nigeria will produce 2.06 million barrels of oil per day. However, oil price volatility and OPEC quotas make these targets uncertain. Experts have highlighted that tying such a large-scale financial plan to overly optimistic assumptions is risky. If prices fall or production lags, the revenue the government is counting on could fall short, further deepening fiscal challenges.
The healthcare sector already showcases the urgent need for accurate financial planning. Nigerian doctors earn an average of ₦4 million annually (approximately $5,200). In many countries, doctors are among the highest-paid professionals because of the critical role they play in saving lives. In Nigeria, however, doctors earn a fraction of what they deserve, forcing many to leave for better opportunities abroad. Teachers face a similar struggle, earning as little as ₦800,000 annually (about $1,040). Despite their crucial role in shaping the nation’s future, they are left to scrape by on salaries that barely cover basic living expenses. But the most shocking disparity lies in the salaries of politicians.
Federal legislators in Nigeria earn ₦83 million annually (around $108,000), or over 20 times what a doctor earns and over 100 times what a teacher makes. While politicians enjoy large salaries and benefits, hospitals and schools crumble, teachers and doctors struggle to survive, and ordinary Nigerians are left to endure the consequences of these inequalities.
For instance, at the University College Hospital (UCH) in Ibadan, a 17-day power outage recently stopped surgeries and left patients in the dark. The hospital owes over ₦3 billion to its electricity provider, a debt it cannot pay because of funding gaps. If funds from this loan don’t materialize as expected due to unrealistic budget projections, more hospitals like UCH could face similar crises.
Miscalculations in the exchange rate also affect prices for imports like fuel and food. If the government underestimates these costs, Nigerians could face even higher prices at the pump and in markets. Inflation—when prices keep rising—hits everyone, but it’s hardest on families who are already struggling to make ends meet.
So, what can Nigeria do to fix this? First, the government needs to use real numbers in its budget. Assuming an exchange rate of ₦800 to $1 when the actual rate is more than double that is risky and unrealistic. It makes the budget look good on paper but fails in real life. Second, the government should save some money in case oil prices drop or the naira loses even more value. This way, it will have a backup plan. Finally, Nigeria needs to invest in other parts of the economy, like farming and factories, so it doesn’t depend so much on oil, which can be unpredictable.
This isn’t just about getting the math right—it’s about real people. It’s about doctors who don’t have the tools they need to save lives. It’s about teachers who don’t get paid enough to live on, let alone inspire their students. And it’s about families who struggle to afford food and fuel while politicians enjoy big salaries and benefits.
If the government wants this $2.2 billion loan to actually help Nigerians, it needs to be honest about the challenges and realistic about the numbers. Plans that work only on paper won’t fix hospitals or schools or put food on people’s tables. Nigeria has a chance to use this money to create real change—but only if it gets the basics right.
Nigeria is at an important moment. This loan could help build better schools, hospitals, and roads—or it could end up as another broken promise. The choices the government makes now will shape the future for millions of Nigerians. Let’s hope they choose wisely.
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