By Olusegun Adeniyi
For as long as I can remember, Nigeria’s October 1 independence anniversary has been an occasion for lamentations. It is a day in which our founding mothers, fathers, brothers, sisters, uncles, and aunties are featured in newspapers bemoaning the situation in our country – without anyone taking responsibility. But while the socio-economic situation remains dire, we have been spared a lot of that hypocrisy in recent years, perhaps because the generation born decades before independence has dwindled considerably. That said, it is not a bad idea to look back as we seek to leap forward.
The crisis of the moment is evident in virtually all sectors. From the debt overhang to the national currency whose value diminishes by the minute to the oil and gas sector where the bounty of nature abundantly available on our shores has been ceded to thieves. Security wise, Nigeria is in a state of anomie. Government—the only human invention meant to separate men from beasts—has lost the monopoly of violence to sundry criminal cartels. Whether on the road, at school or in the marketplace, death has become an unscheduled consequence of normal living for citizens. But I am not here to join the perpetual ‘wailing wailers.’ The foregoing catalogue of misdeeds is simply to remind us of some of the challenges that we still grapple with as a nation. But that’s not the thrust of this intervention.
Today, I want to rely on two archival materials currently doing the rounds among a select audience on WhatsApp as I reflect on the 64th independence of Nigeria and the road ahead. The first, from where I took the title of this column, is a 1947 newspaper advertisement in the United Kingdom. It begins with a quote credited to the Colonial Secretary, Mr Creech Jones, a few days earlier, on 21st August 1947: “I feel sure that Colonial peoples will want to understand the nature and the extent of the present economic difficulties facing us, and in particular how they affect Colonial territories and what the colonies can do in collaboration with us to win through to conditions of greater stability and prosperity.” Those words, according to the advert, “have direct bearing on the visit of the Goodwill Mission of the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons to this country.”
Members of the public were then invited to the meeting scheduled for Tuesday, 9th September 1947 at 7-30 p.m. in Houldsworth Hall, Deansgate. “Speakers will include Members of the Goodwill Mission of the National Council of Nigeria & Cameroons who will visit Manchester.” These visitors were listed as Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe, President N.C.N.C. Elected Member of Legislative Council Nigeria; Prince Adeleke Adedoyin, Secretary N.C.N.C., Elected Member of Legislative Council, Nigeria; Dr Ibiyinka Olorunimbe, Elected Member of Legislative Council, Nigeria; Mallam Buka Dipcharima, Former Member of Maiduguri Council, Nigeria; Chief Nyong Essian, Former President Ibibio Union, Nominated Member of Legislative Council, Nigeria; Mrs Funmilayo Ransome-Kuti, Educationist, President Abeokuta Women’s Union and Mr P.M. Kale, Educationist, President Cameroons Youth League. The forum was organised by the Pan-African Federation of Great Britain whose office was then located at number 58 Oxford Road, Manchester to see how Nigeria could help the United Kingdom to overcome its economic challenges at the period.
I am well aware that this was a colonial era with all its exploitation. So, one can argue that taking from us was not necessarily out of need by the United Kingdom but rather due to greed. But the fact also remains that Nigeria was in a relatively comfortable economic situation at the time, based on the productive capacity of our people. Though largely agrarian, since we are talking about a pre-oil period, the fundamentals of our economy were stable in the pre-independence days.
The second publication is a declassified 21 May 1975 American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) document titled, ‘Lagos Emerging as a Modest Aid Donor’. It reads: “The Caribbean Development Bank has become the latest beneficiary of the modest aid effort that Nigeria has mounted in recent years to advance its claims to leadership in Africa and its international prestige. General (Yakubu) Gowon announced a $2.5 million loan to the bank upon his return from the recent Commonwealth heads of state conference in Jamaica and official visits to Barbados, the Bahamas, and Guyana.
“Since 1972, Nigeria has extended approximately $380 million in known loans and grants to individual governments and international financial institutions. Of this total, Nigeria has lent $240 million to the World Bank, and $120 million to the International Monetary Fund’s special oil facility that makes loans to countries to help cover their oil import requirements. The remaining $20 million has been distributed largely in Africa, particularly to the countries of West Africa and to regional organizations such as the Organization of African Unity and the African Development Bank.
“Nigeria, black Africa’s most populous country, is using the bulk of its oil wealth—oil earnings totalled $8.9 billion in 1974—to finance domestic development programs aimed at improving the lot of its own citizens whose per capita income averages less than $300 per year. The military government is determined not to let its aid activities become a drain on the treasury. In the future, General Gowon has said that Nigeria will emphasize loans to development banks rather than bilateral assistance. The Nigerians probably feel that development banks are in a better position to ensure that the loans will be used for the purposes given and that they will be repaid.”
Fifteen years after independence and five years after the end of a costly (in human and material terms) civil war, we can decipher from the second document that Nigeria was in a strong situation economically. It is indeed remarkable that we made $8.9 billion from oil sales in one year. Taken together, both the 1947 advert in which we were being asked to help the United Kingdom and the 1975 CIA document which reveals that less than 50 years ago we had enough to play ‘Father Christmas’ to the same World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) that we now go cap in hand to borrow from, tell a compelling story about Nigeria.
In his broadcast on Tuesday, President Bola Tinubu admitted being aware of the economic hardship faced by Nigerians due to the current reforms by his administration. Tempting as it may be to focus on what has been left undone and where our country has stumbled, the president argued, and quite correctly, Nigerians must never lose sight of how far we have come as a people. “While we celebrate the progress we have made as a people in the last sixty-four years, we must also recognise some of our missed opportunities and mistakes of the past,” Tinubu charged. “If we are to become one of the greatest nations on earth, as God has destined us to be, our mistakes must not be allowed to follow us into the future.”
I agree with the president that we cannot continue to bemoan the past or repeat the same mistakes and expect to develop as a country. But talk is cheap. Yes, we cannot continue to run government devoid of transparency and accountability and expect development. We cannot continue to accumulate debt, deluding ourselves that we can borrow our way into prosperity. We cannot continue to pretend that it is in our long-term interest to deny our young men and women opportunities for self-advancement in their own country – leaving them no choice but to flee Nigeria. We cannot substitute a regime of sharing ‘palliative’ and bags of rice (even if its an upgrade on ‘Agbado-nomics’) for a serious national economic plan. And while this may be an inconvenient issue to discuss in our country, we also cannot continue to breed a largely unproductive population that is growing at an exponential rate without consequences.
Going by the 2024 World Population Data Sheet released by the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) last week, Nigeria’s population is projected to post a 54 per cent increase by 2050. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s current estimated population of 232 million people is equivalent to 2.85 per cent of the total world population. The PRB provides global, regional, and country-specific data on population growth and decline, age structure, and fertility. Indicators project that Africa will account for 62 percent of global population growth. That Nigeria has a young population should be an advantage but sadly, it is not. We make no serious investment in education or health while out-of-school children in Nigeria are almost twice the entire population of some of the countries within the subregion.
In his book, ‘Reclaiming the Jewel of Africa: A blueprint for taking Nigeria and Africa from potential to prosperity’, published last year, former Finance Minister, Olusegun Aganga, highlighted three critical factors for sustainable growth on the continent, with a special focus on Nigeria. They are political, economic and social institutions. When these three properly align, they ultimately help to provide stability in the system and engender shared prosperity, according to Aganga, who draws relevant examples from countries that have leveraged on these three critical factors for the advancement of their people.
While interrogating why the whole of our country remains less than the sum of its parts, one of the issues addressed by Aganga is that of population. “We have a quantity advantage, and our demographic is the envy of the rest of the world”, Aganga wrote to buttress his point on the benefits of young population, if properly harnessed. “The average age in Nigeria is about 18.6 years. This compares to about 42.5 years in Europe and 38.4 in China.” But Aganga expressed concerns that every year “Nigeria adds 5.5 million people to its population, which is about the population of Congo, Namibia, Liberia, Mauritania and the Gambia, among others.” He then contrasted our population with that of the United Kingdom that was seeking our ‘help’ just about 77 years ago. At independence in 1960, the population of Nigeria was 45.2 million. That same year, the population of the UK was 52 million. Today, the UK is about 69.2 million. That means we are now more than three times the population of a country that was larger than us at independence with a fraction of their resources!
I concede the fact that Nigeria has come a long way and that at 64, there is much to celebrate. But there are also so many things that need to change, beginning with an uncontrolled population growth that is not backed with any infrastructural support. It should worry critical stakeholders that the only thing we are producing at a comparative advantage in Nigeria today are babies! Hence, the need for an enlightenment campaign on responsible procreation. Nigerians must begin to understand that only a moderate population growth that enables a high quality of life for citizens can guarantee a sustainable society.
• You can follow me on my X (formerly Twitter) handle, @Olusegunverdict and on www.olusegunadeniyi.com
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