Rewind your mind to the summer of 2018. Sunshine beating down in the beer garden. Dua Lipa’s One Kiss steaming out of the speaker system. Intoxicating optimism bubbling through your veins.
On the big screen pumping his fists towards the crowd is England manager Gareth Southgate – the nation’s sweetheart.
Having taken on the job as an unfancied interim, the former Crystal Palace and Aston Villa defender has led England to their first World Cup semi-final in 28 years and singlehandedly delivered record sales of Marks & Spencer three-piece suits.
His popularity as England boss is unparalleled in the 21st century, and with a talented young squad at his disposal, further forays to the latter stages of seem guaranteed. A first trophy in over five decades feels tantalisingly close.
Now fast forward six years to the present day. After falling in the final of Euro 2020 and exiting at the quarter-final stage of the 2022 World Cup, Southgate’s stock among England supporters has decreased significantly.
Why? Well, that hope of winning a major trophy began to border on expectation by the time England lost their first final on home soil since 1966 three years ago. Then in Qatar they had France on the ropes for long spells but couldn’t land a knockout blow on the defending champions.
On both occasions Southgate came in for significant criticism pre-tournament for his squad selections and omissions, and then again after the eventual defeats due to an approach deemed too circumspect in key moments. The common theory goes that Southgate is responsible both for England’s consistent progress to the latter stages of tournaments and their inability to make it over the line in the final.
Despite the ambivalence – and in some cases hostility – with which the manager is often treated, England are currently bookmakers’ favourite to win Euro 2024.
So, what lessons does Southgate need to learn in order for England to bring back the trophy from Berlin?
First and foremost, it is vital to understand both what Southgate has done well in previous tournaments, as well as what has led to England’s eventual demise.
One major strength has been his use of his squad. In all three of his tournaments in charge, Southgate has essentially treated the group stage and knockouts as two separate entities, using a far wider variety of players in the opening round of competitions before settling on a consistent starting eleven for the crucial later matches.
In 2018, he used 20 different starting players in the group stage before opting for the exact same lineup in all three knockout matches, went from 16 starters to 13 at Euro 2020, and from 15 to the same 11 between the two different phases in Qatar.
Given the quality of the opposition increases and time spent in possession decreases in the knockout rounds, this is a sensible approach which means that key players who are best able to maintain the tactical approach against top opponents have been given time to rest when things are theoretically easier.
Moreover, England have used set pieces extremely well under Southgate, scoring ten times from corners or free kicks across the past three tournaments, and have been very difficult to score against, conceding only 13 goals in 18 matches.
But none of that was enough to bring home a trophy.
There are three key improvements Southgate can make to finally change that this summer.
Play the big games on England’s terms
It is very rare that an international tournament is won by the team which plays the most attractive or exciting football. More often than not, the eventual victor is the team which is able to exert the most control over matches, and to dictate the way in which they are played.
In each of the defeats to Croatia, Italy, and France, England have to a large extent allowed matches to be played on the opposition’s terms. In 2018 Croatia were permitted to have the majority of possession in the centre of the park before shuffling it wide to create chances. At Euro 2020, Italy were allowed to have the ball, keep the play narrow, restrict attacking space and play for set-pieces around the box.
In both cases, Southgate allowed the opponent’s playing style to dictate the way the matches were played, thus conceding control of the match.
Against France 18 months ago, England did a much better job of imposing their own style for the majority of the match but relented halfway through the second half, allowing the French full-backs and wingers to use the ball in high area. That led to the concession of Giroud’s winner.
England will have arguably the best starting eleven in the tournament this summer. The vast majority of the team will have played together at the World Cup in Qatar, and most figured in the previous two tournaments too.
Ensuring that England’s style is more dominant than their opponents’ could make a huge difference against higher level foes in the knockout rounds.
Have a plan for early success
Though each of the defeats to Croatia, Italy and France had their own individual quirks, what underpinned them all was England’s inability to press home an advantage when they were in the ascendency.
In the first two of those matches they lost having taken the lead, while against France they equalised having fallen behind early on and had more possession and shots than their opponents before conceding the winner.
In each of those games, England started strongly before encouraging their opponents back into the match very quickly, and gradually faded into poorer play as time went on.
With that in mind, Southgate perhaps needs to plan more for early success. It’s all well and good taking an early lead in a crucial match, but that must be followed with a blueprint for holding onto it. That may mean a shift in approach to make a match slower and less eventful, or could involve attempting to increase the advantage with a further flurry of attacking play.
Whichever it is, a plan of some sort would be more useful than the panic followed by gentle retreat demonstrated by Southgate’s England in the defeats to Croatia and Italy in particular.
Make better use of substitutions
In all three of England’s previous tournament defeats, Southgate has waited too long to make changes, losing the opportunity to present opponents with a fresh problem while his team has been on the front foot.
The approach to substitutions against France was particularly egregious – England dominated possession between Aurelien Tchouameni’s opener and Olivier Giroud’s winner, but couldn’t make the breakthrough and take the lead once Harry Kane had equalised from the penalty spot.
Instead, Southgate waited until after Giroud’s goal to bring on Mason Mount and Raheem Sterling, before Marcus Rashford and Jack Grealish were thrown on with barely enough time to make any impact.
Against Italy, too, Southgate made only two changes in the first 100 minutes, while Italy’s Roberto Mancini made five.
A more dynamic approach to making substitutions, giving the coach in the opposite dugout something new to worry about while things are going well rather than waiting for a setback, could be a real game changer.
All three of the above points relate to the idea that England can win this summer’s tournament if Southgate becomes more proactive than he has been in the past.
Manage that, and he could reach a level of adoration he could hardly ever have dreamed of.
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