2023: Can Obedient movement determine FCT Senate race

The wave of Obidient movement is sweeping across the country, and the FCT appears to be at the centre, as many in the federal capital are sympathetic to Peter Obi of the Labour Party.

Apart from the presidential election, the biggest election in the FCT is that of the senatorial seat, which Philip Aduda, the Minority Leader has been occupying since 2011.

Mr Aduda was in the House of Representatives from 2003 to 2011 before moving to the red chamber.

Unlike in the past, the race is a four-horse race between Aduda, Angulu Dobi of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Ireti Kinginbe of the Labour Party and Anthony Ezekwugo of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).

To win the election, all the candidates have to secure the highest number of votes in the six area councils in the FCT—Abuja Municipal, Bwari, Kwali, Kuje, Gwagwalada and Abaji.

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Since 2015, the PDP has been the strongest in the area; currently, all the federal lawmakers are in the PDP, however, the current dynamic seems to be changing the race in the capital city.

Chances of the candidates

Philip Aduda

Mr Aduda has the advantage of being an incumbent and can leverage on the PDP structure in the FCT. His strength is in AMAC and Bwari area council.

Although the Obedient movement may sway voters in the FCT, the rural areas may deliver bloc votes for him.

Angulu Dobi

The former Gwagwalada Area Council Chairman is making another attempt to return to the National Assembly.

He was in the House from 2015 to 2019 when he represented Abuja South in the House of Representatives. He was defeated in 2019 after the election tsunami that swept the APC away.

In Gwagwalada, Mr Dobi is like the de facto godfather, where he determines who becomes local government chairman. He will be counting on votes in Gwagwalada, Kwali, Abaji and Kuje.

He will be counting on the division of the PDP votes to LP and APGA.

Ireti Kingibe

The Labour Party candidate could be the beneficiary of the Obedient movement by getting votes from those that May vote LP from “top to bottom”.

The LP candidate is the wife of Babagana Kingibe, the powerful former Secretary to the Government of the Federation. She will be hoping to leverage on the contacts of her husband to make up for the lack of structure of the Labour Party.

She will have to contend with the issue of indigeneship in the FCT, as both Dobi and Aduda are indigenes.

Kingibe will have to contend with the APGA candidate. It would be recalled that a group, Middle Belt and Southern caucus had purportedly endorsed Anthony Ezekwugo as candidate, however, the Labour Party in the FCT had denied the endorsement.

Anthony Chike Ezekwugo

The candidate of APGA is also from Anambra State like Mr Obi, and across the FCT, there have been some posters with both Messrs Obi and Ezekwugo on them.

While the Labour Party has debunked the reported alliance with the APGA candidate, the posters are still everywhere in the FCT.

Recently, he also got an endorsement from Action Alliance.

While he may have to deal with the issue of not being an indigene of the FCT, he may, however, be counting on South-East voters and the Peter Obi effect.