What could GOP control of the House mean for U.S.-China tensions?

The pandemic is just one of the issues that have brought U.S.-China relations to their lowest point in decades, along with disputes over trade, human rights and China’s growing military presence in the Asia-Pacific region. Tensions were further inflamed in August by Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, the first by a sitting U.S. House speaker since 1997.

Experts say Biden’s China policy has largely been the same as that of former President Donald Trump, who imposed tariffs on Chinese imports that led to a trade war. In October the Biden administration went further, announcing sweeping export controls limiting China’s access to strategically important semiconductor chips.

While “responsibly managing” competition with China, the world’s second-largest economy, the White House says it also welcomes cooperation on issues of global importance such as climate change, public health and nuclear nonproliferation. Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in person in Indonesia last month for the first time since Biden took office, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken says he plans to visit China early next year.

On Friday Blinken announced the launch of a new Office of China Coordination in order to “ensure the U.S. government is able to responsibly manage our competition … and advance our vision for an open, inclusive international system.” 

Bipartisan ‘China bashing?’

But U.S.-China relations could be disrupted by an atmosphere of political one-upmanship on China in a Republican-controlled House, said Michael O’Hanlon, the director of research for foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.

“They may decide that it’s good politics to really indulge in more China bashing, try to portray Biden as somehow weak on this issue, depending on how they choose to set themselves up to run against him in 2024,” he said.

Some Republicans criticized the White House response to protests in China against “zero-Covid” controls that were the largest show of public unrest the country had seen in decades, with some protesters calling for Xi to step down.

The White House defended Chinese citizens’ right to peacefully protest but stopped short of criticizing Beijing, in what some experts saw as an attempt to avoid supporting Chinese government claims that the protests were driven by “foreign forces.” McCarthy and other Republicans said Biden should have gone further.

“As Chinese citizens bravely protest, Joe Biden & the corporate class shrug,” the Republican leader said on Twitter. “Our Select Committee on China will do what Biden refuses — finally reckon with the pariah that is the CCP.”

Similarly, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas tweeted: “When you speak out for freedom, that terrifies the tyrants in China, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. But what does Joe Biden do? He appeases and shows weakness to all of them!”

The Chinese government will be closely following the actions of the new Congress, said Wu Xinbo, the director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. 

“I think it is worried about the prospect that a new Congress will get tough on China,” he said. At the same time, “Beijing would also welcome the opportunity for the improvement of the bilateral relationship.” 

House Republicans might try to be tougher on China than the Biden and Trump administrations, neither of which have been especially aggressive, said Derek Scissors, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. But if the select committee takes a bipartisan approach, he said, the House might be able to originate legislation that is signed into law.

Some Republicans and Democrats have already found common ground on China legislation, pushing for bipartisan bills to ban TikTok, which has a China-based parent company, and restrict Huawei’s access to U.S. banks.

“If it can’t be done on a bipartisan basis, there’s still a public relations effort in raising the profile of China to the American people and even to people in Washington,” Scissors said.

Pro-business elements of the Republican Party could also serve as a moderating force, Scissors said.

The most volatile issue in U.S.-China relations is the status of Taiwan, which Beijing has not ruled out seizing by force. While the White House maintains that its long-standing “One China” policy has not changed, there is bipartisan support in Congress for strengthening Washington’s unofficial ties with Taipei, as well as scattered calls for the United States. to make a full-throated commitment to defend Taiwan against any Chinese invasion.

Lawmakers from both parties have been visiting Taiwan with increasing frequency, drawing protests from Beijing.

It is almost like McCarthy “kind of has to do it to show his bona fides,” Johnson said.

These trips are more about politics than American national security or interests, Allison said.

A visit by McCarthy would be “as irresponsible and reckless as his predecessor’s was and will produce another major Chinese step forward in demonstrating their capability to strangle Taiwan,” he said.

Wu agreed: “I think China’s response to Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan basically set a precedent for China to follow in the future,” he said, adding that if McCarthy visits, it will be “a big shock in China-U.S. relations.”

A spokesperson for McCarthy told NBC News last week there were no updates on a possible trip to Taiwan.

Johnson said it was also China’s responsibility to put moves by U.S. lawmakers in context and not react with maximum force to actions that may be deliberately provocative. 

“I think if they are able to calibrate their response, then that could be a sign that they do want to improve relations with the U.S.,” he said. “If they really go ballistic over these things, then I think it’s a sign that they’re not able to control the hawks in their own government either.”